TD Securities analysts are expecting that this week’s Australian sentiment reports are likely to be rather bearish.
“Tomorrow, the NAB business survey is expected to muddle along after soggy Dec/Jan prints, if not actually deteriorate further. A likely change of government is key here. Then on Wednesday, consumer sentiment is expected to slump on ‘recession’ talk.”
“As we edge towards the May election, a change of government is looking likely.”
“Last week, Australian media obsessed over a per-capita GDP recession. While technically correct, households likely just heard the R-word. In December 2014, when news of a similar “income recession” was revealed, there was a subsequent 6% slump in consumer sentiment to 91.1. We pencil in a similar correction from 103.8 to 97 (with downside risk) for Wednesday.”