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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its Interest rate Decision on Tuesday, 7 April at 04:30 GMT. Economists at TD Securities analyze three possible scenarios and the implications for the AUD/USD pair.

Key quotes

“We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at 0.25%. We don’t anticipate the RBA to announce any adjustments to policy, but any indication on volume and frequency of purchases will garner attention.”

“Dovish (20% prob): The RBA implies the pace of bond buying could increase. Points to risks of inflation falling sharply lower. AUD/USD at 0.59.”

“Neutral Base Case (60% prob): The RBA had not been able to develop a set of forecasts given the heightened uncertainty and its confidence on the timing of the recovery still remains uncertain. Don’t expect the Bank to reveal any information on the pace of bond buying, will assess and monitor. AUD/USD at 0.6050.”

“Hawkish (20% prob): The pace of bond buying is expected to decrease. Global Central bank initiatives have made a difference, and are expected to see further improvements going ahead. The Bank indicates buying longer-dated bonds is NOT on the agenda. AUD/USD at 0.6185.”