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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have a meeting next month and the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release Q4 GDP data on 4 March. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank share their forecast. 

Key quotes

“We expect the RBA to keep the policy cash rate at 0.75% at its March meeting. Given the RBA’s new focus on the unemployment rate and its continued reluctance to cut rates, we expect it to keep rates on hold near-term.”

“We still expect two rate cuts, but believe the RBA will wait until April to cut the policy cash rate further, with a second cut in Q3 following the GDP print.” 

“We maintain our view that the economy requires further stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, to return growth to sustainable trend growth of c.3%.”

“Growth likely remained soft at 0.3% q/q, following the 0.4% q/q expansion in Q3; in y/y terms, we estimate a mild improvement to 1.8% y/y.”