Australia’s CAPEX: 2nd estimate for 2018/19 higher-than-expected

Australian capex (private capital expenditure) for Q1 shows a capex ‘headline’ of +0.4% q/q vs 0.7% expected and -0.2% last. The 2nd estimate for 2018/19 investment expectations came at 87.7$ bn, which is a strong result. As per Q1  building capex, it came at -1.3% q/q, while  Q1 plant and machinery was -+2.5% q/q. Lastly, the 2017/18 6th estimate is currently projected at 117.50$ mn.          

KEY POINTS (Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics)

ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)

The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure rose by 0.5% in the March quarter 2018 while the seasonally adjusted estimate rose by 0.4%.

The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell by 0.6% in the March quarter 2018 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 1.3%.

The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.9% in the March quarter 2018 while the seasonally adjusted estimate rose by 2.5%.

EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT PRICE TERMS)

This issue includes the sixth estimate (Estimate 6) for 2017-18 and the second estimate (Estimate 2) for 2018-19.

Estimate 6 for 2017-18 is $117,501m. This is 3.8% higher than Estimate 6 for 2016-17. Estimate 6 is 2.8% higher than Estimate 5 for 2017-18.

Estimate 2 for 2018-19 is $87,740m. This is 1.4% higher than Estimate 2 for 2017-18. Estimate 2 is 5.7% higher than Estimate 1 for 2018-19.