Bank of Japan Preview: Forecast from six major banks

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will release its Monetary Policy Statement on December 18 at 03:00 GMT  and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of sive major banks. The BoJ board members are likely to announce no change to its monetary policy setting, keeping the key rates steady at -10bps while maintaining a 10yr JGB yield target at 0.00%. 

The USD/JPY pair has breached the 103.00 level, sitting at the lowest levels since March 2020 in the showdown to the BoJ decision.

Standard Chartered

“We maintain our view that the BoJ will likely keep its policy balance rate unchanged at -0.1% and the 10Y yield target at c.0%. We think there is limited room for the BoJ to change its monetary policy stance as of now. Meanwhile, we expect headline inflation to have dropped to -0.9% YoY with a continued fall in demand due to COVID-19 and social distancing measures, which have weighed on the services sector.”

Danske Bank

“We expect the BoJ to extend its emergency lending facilities beyond the current run-off date of 31 March 2021. We expect the yield curve control policy to stay unchanged.”

ING

“The focus will be on the BoJ extending schemes to keep corporate credit costs low at a time when Japan is still battling with Covid-19. No change is expected in any of the key BoJ levers on rates or JGB yields, however.” 

Deutsche Bank

“The question for the BoJ is whether they extend their support for corporate financing beyond the end-March expiration date. On this, we now believe they will take action this week.”

TDS

“While no change is likely in terms of policy rates, asset purchases and forward guidance, BoJ is likely to extend special funding measures to support businesses. Policy stimulus is now more focused on the fiscal front, with PM Suga recently unveiling a third package. Q3 GDP was revised higher reducing some of the pressure on the BoJ but consumer spending may suffer in Q4.”

BofA

“The BoJ is expected to keep all key policy targets unchanged at its last meeting of the year. The policy board will likely extend the deadline for its COVID-19 corporate funding support program by 6 months, to September 2021. The likely absence of major actions by the BoJ in the near future justifies the lack of market interest in its policy. The BoJ’s loose monetary policy stance maintains JPY’s funding currency status.”