Is 50-50 good enough? This is one of the comments, from Guy Verhofstadt, coming out of Brussels regarding the potential for a successful result in the Brexit negotiations. But there are more optimistic words as well. Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier sees a good chance of a Brexit breakthrough.
Update: more reports coming about UK concessions and a big breakthrough.
However, there may be complications: Irish Regulatory Alignment could tear May’s government apart
In addition, a European member of parliament, Lamberts, said that a breakthrough is likely today. What about the Irish border? The official broadcaster in Ireland says that the UK will commit to a “continued regulatory alignment”, whatever that means. This may be a semantic compromise that contributes to announcing “progress” that will unlock the next step of the talks: the future relations.
Another MEP called Brock said “there is a very good chance” that PM May will strike a deal and adds that “only a few words are missing”.
The Guardian reports that the UK concedes on the Irish border.
According to sources, MEPs were told by the chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, that Theresa May had conceded after days of intense talks that the province would be treated as a special case with “continued regulatory alignment” between the north and south of the island after Brexit.
Reminder: the DUP does not like giving a special treatment to its region, Northern Ireland and they bring down the May government. Here is a quick response.
The DUP’s Sammy Wilson on @BBCTalkback comes out against regulatory alignment on island of Ireland in draft #Brexit deal and says it would be vetoed at Stormont (presumably by DUP), even though there is no Stormont. Declines to speculate on deal with UK Govt.
— Steven McCaffery (@SMcC_TheDetail) December 4, 2017
In any case, the pound is reacting. It hit a low of 1.3419 earlier in the day and now it is trading over 100 pips higher, around 1.3530 at the time of writing.
One of the last-minute sticking points is the role of the European Court of Justice. This Tory-taboo could bring down the talks.
The negotiations could still fail and the pound could still fall. Resistance awaits at 1.3550. The high so far is 1.3538. Further resistance awaits at 1.3615.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs