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Bearish Pattern on 30 Year US Bonds Could Cause Risk-Off

USD is in bullish mode since yesterday’s ECB and BOE rate decisions when both banks decided to leave the policy unchanged but made very dovish statements. USD is up against the EUR, GBP and CHF, but slightly down against the JPY and commodity currencies. So, the picture is quite mixed across the market, especially if we also consider lower metals and a higher stock market.

We will soon get the NFP numbers from the US which will definitely shake the markets pretty hard. The reason is a speculation regarding the QE; if employment situation in the US will improve then this will suggest that FED may lower QE earlier than expected (expected reaction=lower bonds, lower stocks, higher USD, lower Gold).

On the other-hand bad figures will suggest that QE will not end anytime soon which will be supportive for risk-on trade and bad for the USD. We will have to keep a very close eye on the 10 or 30 year US bonds because this will be the main driver for the markets later today.

On 30year US bonds we can see a three wave rise from the low which can be wave (4) is weakness may resume in wave (5).

30year us bonds elliott Wave Analysis July 5 2013 for usd trading forex

 

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Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!