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GBP USD Forecast

British Pound Outlook – August 10-14 2009

The British Pound broker the magical 1.67 line and pushed forward, but bad figures in Britain and good figures across the Atlantic sent it back down. This week’s events, with the  Claimant Count Change leading them, will set the direction for the Pound. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in Britain, and a technical analysis for GBP/USD.

To 1.70 and back: GBP/USD graph with support / resistance lines:

GBP/USD Technical Analysis August 2009

Mervyn King’s decision to expand the Quantitative Easing program was bad news for the Pound o Thursday. Friday’s deep decline in PPI didn’t help the Pound either. This shattered the Pound’s gains. So did American NFP that surprised.  Let’s see what expects cable this week:

  1. RICS House Price Balance: The  Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors  has access to very recent price data due to their jobs. So, this indicator is important. The negative value means that more people reported a decline in prices. The last time that this index was positive was 2 years ago (!). Also now, it’s expected to remain negative, but somewhat better: from -18.1% to -9.8%. It’s published on Monday at 23:00 GMT (midnight UK).
  2. Trade Balance: British trade balance usually shows a stable deficit. Expectations for this month are no different. It’s expected to change from 6.3 billion to 6.4 billion, not really significant. Only a much deeper deficit will hurt the Pound. Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT.
  3. Claimant Count Change: This it the first and most important employment figure in the UK. It has printed excellent surprises in recent months, dropping from the heights of 138K new people claiming unemployment to 23.8 last time. This time, predictions are for a setback to 25.5K. The release on Wednesday will ignite strong moves in GBP/USD.
  4. BOE Inflation Report: The Bank of England presents this report on both inflation and economic growth. Prices in Britain seem to follow those of the continent by dropping. Will the Bank of England also state that deflation is here? This has great importance for future rate decisions. The presentation of the report will be followed by a speech from Mervyn King, governor of the BOE.

American FOMC Statement, CPI, Retail Sales and other figures will also move GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Like in other currency pairs, the fall of the dollar at the beginning of the week broker technical barriers: GBP/USD broke 1.67 and went as high as 1.7042. After flirting with 1.70, the Pound was hit badly on Thursday, and continued to fall on Friday, with the big improvement of the US job market. Finally, GBP/USD closed lower than last week, at 1.6679.

1.6660 continues to remain important, but less than last week. This week’s high, 1.70, is a new minor resistance line, and further north, 1.74 is in the horizon.

But after the dollar’s comeback, it’s important to look down: 1.6320 served as a minro support line quite recently. 1.62 is more important. Way down, 1.48 seved as a support and resistance line many times in the past. The graph above has all the lines…

That’s it. I believe that the direction is now downwards, but anything can happen…

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.