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EUR/USD October 6 – Choppy At High Ground

EUR/USD continues to ride on the weak dollar, but isn’t making impressive breaks. Hints towards the Non-Farm Payrolls can be misleading, but they shake the markets. Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals, and community trends.

eur usd forecast October 6 2010

EUR/USD stuck at 1.3850 – click to enlarge

* Post updated at 13:30 GMT.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  very quiet session, with EUR/USD struggling around 1.37850.
  • Current Range between 1.3850 to 1.40
  • Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.35, 1.3430, 1.3365, 1.3267, 1.3160, and 1.3110.  Above   1.40 1.42 and 1.4450.
  • Wide uptrend channel far again: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises.  EUR/USD slipped below uptrend support yesterday, but this was only a false break.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 9:00 Final GDP. Exp. 1%. Actual 1%.
  • 10:00 German Factory Orders. Exp. 0.9%. Actual 3.4% – Euro positive.
  • 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. +23K. Actual -39K.
  • 13:00 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks about currencies and adds to choppiness.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. This could change this week, but in the meantime, the downgrade of Ireland hurt the Euro only for a short time.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs.
  • ADP Non-Farm Payrolls are a hint towards the official figure, although it can be misleading. The bad figure hurts the dollar. Note that last month’s number was revised from a drop to a rise…
  • The uptrend channel should be closely watched.
  • Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short, slightly down from 52:48 yesterday. These are 1092 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.