The special tribunal for Lebanon is expected to publish its conclusions on Thursday, December 2nd, 2010. The conclusions are likely include indictments against senior Hezbollah members. This is expected to raise tensions in Lebanon, to say the least.
Evidence obtained by the STL is likely to show that Hizballah assassinated Rafik Hariri, former Prime Minister of Lebanon. The murder resulted in the evacuation of Syrian forces out of Lebanon. The indictment now could spark fire in the Middle East.
As written two days ago, these Lebanese tensions could end in a full scale war in the region
The bigger fear is that a violent conflict in Lebanon could spill over to the whole region. Hezbollah may attack Israel in order to divert the fire to a bigger enemy. The Israeli cabinet is holding a meeting to get ready for a possible escalation of the situation.
Such a deterioration will push oil prices higher, and adding to the already risk aversive mood in the markets. The US dollar is likely to jump, and so are the Japanese yen and the Swiss Franc, to a lesser extent. The Canadian dollar will rock between falling on risk aversion and by rising on the higher oil prices.
It will be very interesting to see the reaction of Hasan Hasrallah if this happens. He already pushed the Lebanese government to stop funding the STL, but the current Prime Minister, Saed Hariri, son of murdered Rafik Hariri, pushed through. Will Hezbollah take over Lebanon?