EUR/USD Mar. 16 – Holding Above Support

EUR/USD is trading at the higher range after another failed attempt to break higher. It’s a busy day all over the world. Will the breakout be seen today? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Dropped to 1.3950 before staying slightly above it.
• Current range – 1.3950 – 1.4030.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:   1.4030, 1.4160, 1.4282, 1.44
• While the round number of 1.40 is watched by Trichet and European politicians, real resistance is only at 1.4030. This is clearly seen over and over again.
• Support at 1.3860 is of importance once again, as it prevented significant falls.

Euro/Dollar in same range under the very tough resistance- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 10:00 European CPI. Exp. +2.4%. Core CPI exp. +1.1%.
• 12:30 US PPI. Exp. +0.7%. Core PPI exp. +0.2%.
• 12:30 Building Permits. Exp. 580K.
• 12:30 US Housing Starts. Exp. 580K.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Bailout for Portugal – Moody’s just downgraded Portugal’s credit rating by two notches, from A1 to A3. The bailout is getting closer, especially after the EU Summit failed to provide full solutions. Here’s a  full analysis of the EU Summit.
• FOMC Statement: Ben Bernanke and the other members made no changes to the interest rate or the QE2 program. But, the statement was relatively hawkish, dedicating many words to “monitoring inflation”. See the FOMC Review for more.
• Moody’s downgrades Spain’s credit rating by one level to AA2 but at the moment, Spanish bond yields are falling, showing hope that the crisis will pass over the Euro-zone’s fourth largest economy.
• Japanese Earthquake rocks markets: The nuclear reactors still pose a danger as radiation levels continue to rise and engineers seem helpless. This is felt all over the world and still strengthens the US dollar.

Currensee Community: 59% are long , 41% are short. These are 1437 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.