Home GBP/USD: Trading the US CB Confidence November 28 2011

GBP/USD: Trading the US CB Confidence November 28 2011

 The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 U.S. households regarding their opinion of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to its release, which always has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The CB Consumer Confidence Index provides critical readings  on consumer confidence and spending. The index’s direction and rate of change are carefully scrutinized by analysts and traders looking for an indication of which direction the economy is headed .

The index has been on a sharp slide since February, when it peaked at 70.4 (a three-year high). October’s reading was a dismal 39.8, well below the market forecast of 46.1. The forecast for November stands at 43.9. Will the markets get it right this month?

Sentiments and levels

The Euro Zone debt crisis is taking its toll on  the continent’s currencies, and the pound is no exception. The British economy remains in the doldrums, with manufacturing figures down and consumers pessimistic and  wary about  spending.   So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.5850, 1.5780, 1.5690, 1.5633, 1.5530, 1.5480 and 1.5340.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 40.0 to 48.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to remain within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 48.1 to 52.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 52.0: A sharp increase in consumer confidence could boost the dollar and send the pair below two or more support levels.
  4. Below expectations: 35.0 to 39.9: A reading lower than forecast could push GBP/USD above one resistance level.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 34.9: Due to the ongoing weakness of the US economy, a sharp decline remains a slight possibilty. In this outcome, the pair would likely break through two or more resistance levels.

For more on GBP/USD, see the GBP/USD forecast.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.