Home USD/JPY: Trading the US Conference Board Consumer September 2012

USD/JPY: Trading the US Conference Board Consumer September 2012

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 households regarding their opinion of the economy. Its release  can  affect the direction of USD/JPY.  A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The CB Consumer Confidence Index provides  an important snapshot of  consumer confidence and spending. The release is carefully scrutinized by analysts and traders looking for an indication of which direction the economy is headed.

The indicator was  down sharply in August, dropping to 60.6 points, well above the market forecast of 65.8. The release was also the  indicator’s weakest performance since November. The  markets are expecting a stronger  September, with  an estimate of 62.9 points.

Sentiments and levels

With  the markets  predicting some modest  improvement in Europe, the safe haven yen has some room for losses at these levels. In the longer run, QE3 will continue weighing on the USD/JPY, especially as US figures weren’t too good.  So, the overall sentiment is  bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 80, 79.70, 78.80, 78, 77.50 and 77.

5 Scenarios    

  1. Within expectations: 60.0 to 67.0: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 67.1 to 70.5: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 70.5: Another sharp increase in consumer confidence could propel the pair above two or more resistance levels.
  4. Below expectations:  56.5 to 59.9: A reading lower than forecast could send USD/JPY below one support level.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 56.5: An unexpected weak reading could push the pair  below two or more support levels.

For more on USD/JPY, see the USD/JPY forecast.


Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.