GBP/USD: Trading the British Retail Sales Mar 2013

British  Retail Sales measures change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It  is considered one of the most important indicators of consumer spending, and is released on a monthly basis.  A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the  British pound.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.

Published on Thursday at 9:30 GMT.

 Indicator Background

Consumer spending is one of the most important components of the economy, and strong numbers in this sector signify growth and a stronger economy.

British Retail Sales looked awful in the Feburary reading, posting a decline of 0.6%. This was way off the estimate of 0.5%. The  markets are expecting a strong turnaround in March, with an  estimate of a respectable gain of  0.5%. Will the indicator meet or beat the forecast?

Sentiments and levels

The pound has had a turbulent 2013, and remains under pressure, as the UK economy continues to sputter. In contrast, the US economy has posted some solid numbers of late, and the recovery appears to be deepening.  . Given the sharp contrast in the prospects for the two economies, the pound will have a tough time making more gains against the dollar. As well, difficulties in the Eurozone, notably the crisis over the Cyprus bailout, has resulted in nervous investors flocking to the safe-haven greenback. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.5406, 1.5282, 1.5189, 1.5061, 1.5010 and 1.4896.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 0.3% to 0.7%: In such a case, the  pound is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.1%: An unexpected higher reading can send GBP/USD above one resistance line.
3. Well above expectations: Above 1.1%: Such an outcome would likely propel the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
4. Below expectations: -1.1% to 0.2%: A negative reading could push GBP/USD below one level of support.
5. Well below expectations: Below -0.4%:  A reading deep  into negative  territory  fall could result in the pair breaking a second support level.

For more about the pound, see the  GBP to USD forecast.

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