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September offers potential for further dollar strength

EUR: This time it’s the turn of the Eurozone to release consumer confidence data just as the US did earlier in the week.   At the same time unemployment is released which is expected to remain at 12.1%.   There is also inflation data and so the combination of the three pieces of data might contribute to some sort of move this morning.

USD: Later today we see the Chicago PMI data release followed closely by Michigan sentiment which both have the potential to move the market, even if the taper on, taper off debate has been thrown out the window for now as all eyes remain firmly on developments in Syria.

Idea of the Day

Some have argued that the euro has in its own right a degree of safety about it, especially since things in the Eurozone have largely calmed down throughout 2013, but yesterday’s move lower in EURUSD proved that this is far from the case.   The single currency was hit not only by dollar strength due to the mounting tensions in Syria, but the dollar also enjoyed a good bounce yesterday as US GDP data surprised to the upside.   This could set a precedent for the month ahead and September could prove to be a volatile month considering there are some major risk events building, which might mean the dollar strength we’ve seen is set to continue.

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JPY: Last night’s manufacturing PMI, inflation and industrial production data releases were relatively mixed with a positive bias and go some way to suggest that “Abenomics” is working.  Despite the industrial production element missing expectations, attempts to introduce inflation back into the economy were boosted as the CPI figure came in higher.

USD: US GDP figures beat forecasts but by the time they were released the dollar had made good gains already.   Further evidence if ever there was that tapering can be expected sooner rather than later.

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