Home USD/JPY Outlook September 16-20

For the second straight week ,USD/JPY  broke above the 100 line but  could not hold onto  these gains and retracted. The pair was down slightly on the week, closing at 99.37. The upcoming week has just four events on the schedule. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese manufacturing releases were mixed, but GDP posted another strong gain, rising 0.9%. US numbers were a disappointment, as retail sales and consumer confidence data was sluggish.

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USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     USD JPY Outlook Sep. 16-20th

  1. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 23:50. Japan continues to post trade deficits, and the July release ballooned to -0.94 trillion yen compared to -0.60 trillion the month before. The markets are expecting an improvement in September, with an estimate of -0.81 trillion yen.
  2. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Thursday, Tentative. Kuroda will address a securities conference in Tokyo. Analysts will be looking for clues as to future monetary policy and interest rate moves by the BOJ.
  3. All Industries Activity: Thursday, 4:30. The markets have done a good job of providing accurate predictions for this indicator. The July reading posted a -0.6% decline, which matched the forecast. The markets are anticipating an improvement in September, with an estimate of a gain of 0.3%.
  4. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Friday, Tentative. Kuroda will address a meeting in Tokyo. If his speech is more hawkish than expected, we could see the yen gain some ground.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY  started the week at 99.83. The pair  pushed above the 100 line, touching a high of  100.61, as  resistance at 100.85 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed direction and  tested the 0.99 line, dropping to a low of 0.9901. USD/JPY closed the week at 99.37.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom

We  start with resistance at the round number of 104. This line was a key line in May 2008. At that time, USD/JPY was in the midst of a rally which saw the pair climb as high as 110.

102.50 was an important resistance line  in late May but has not been tested since that time.

101.44 was the post-crisis high seen in April 2009, and has not been tested since mid-July. 100.85 was busy in July as the dollar pushed above the 100 level. This line held intact as the pair pushed into 100-territory this week.

The significant 100 level  saw a lot of activity in July. It  was breached for the second straight week, but starts the week as a weak resistance line. Will it face more action in the coming week?

98.90 held firm as a support line,  as USD/JPY touched a low of 99.01. This line could be tested if the yen gains more ground.

97.80  is  next. This line was  quite busy  in June and in late July and is providing strong support.

96.71  is the next support line. This is followed by the  round number of 95, a psychologically significant  line.  This line has held firm since mid-June.

The final support level for now is 93.79. This line  marked the low point of  a rally  by  USD/JPY which started in mid-June and saw the  pair climb to the mid-101 range in July.

I  am  bullish on USD/JPY

The markets continue to speculate about QE tapering, and we could get an idea about the Fed’s plans when the FOMC meets later this week. Meanwhile, uncertainty about QE could help the US dollar post gains against the major currencies, including the yen.

Further reading:


Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.