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Forex Analysis: AUD/USD Climb Stalls at 50% Recovery


October 23, 2013 – AUD/USD (daily chart) has stalled and pulled back after rising up to reach and slightly exceed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the long and steep plunge from the April high near 1.0600 resistance down to the August 0.8850 area low. This 50% recovery comes off an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern reversal with its low at the noted 0.8850 support level. After the neckline of that head-and-shoulders pattern was broken to the upside in early September, the currency pair began to stage a recovery that has just culminated in the current attainment of the 50% retracement.

Wednesday’s price action saw the pair reach a high at 0.9757, slightly above the noted 50% level, before pulling back to the downside from the resistance imposed. Currently, the pair is just below its previous upside resistance target of 0.9650. If AUD/USD is able to turn around and continue its recovery above 0.9650 and the 50% retracement level, key further objectives to the upside include the 0.9850 and then parity (1.0000) levels. Current downside support tentatively resides around the 0.9500 area.

James Chen, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
City Index Group


Forex trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This information is being provided only for general market commentary and does not constitute investment trading advice. These materials are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial instrument and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

James Chen

James Chen

James Chen is Chief Technical Strategist for City Index Group. He is also a Chartered Market Technician. He is the author of the books: "Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading" (John Wiley & Sons, 2009) and "Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets" (John Wiley & Sons, 2010). Mr. Chen writes currency analysis, leads forex trading seminars and has appeared in numerous major financial media outlets, including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Forbes, Reuters, Dow Jones, and the Associated Press.