Home USD/CAD Outlook Oct. 28 – Nov. 1

The Canadian dollar had a rough week, as USD/CAD  surged 150 points. The pair closed at 1.0445. This week’s highlight is the GDP release. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar lost ground as the BOC maintained interest rates at 1.00%, but removed its  hawkish bias in its rate statement. US unemployment and manufacturing data was sluggish, and this also hurt the Canadian currency.

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USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     USD CAD Outlook Oct. 28-Nov. 1

  1. RMPI: Tuesday, 12:30.  The Raw Materials Price Index measures inflation in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index tends to fluctuate, making accurate predictions difficult. The August reading came in at 0.9%, well below the estimate of 3.2%. The markets are bracing for a decline   of 0.4% in September, which would mark the first drop since April.
  2. BOC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote Speaks: Tuesday, 17:40. Cote will address the Chartered Financial Analysts Society and Manitoba Chambers of Commerce in Winnipeg. Analysts will be looking  for clues as to the  BOC’s future monetary policy.
  3. GDP: Thursday, 12:30. GDP, which is released every month,  is the key event of the week. The indicator is one of the most important economic releases and can have a major impact on USD/CAD. In August, GDP posted a strong gain of 0.6%, matching the forecast. The markets are bracing for a weak gain of 0.2% in the upcoming release. Will the indicator surprise the markets with another strong gain?

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.0295 and dropped to a low of 1.0271 early in the week. The pair then changed directions,  climbing all the way to 1.0460  and closing the week at 1.0445, as resistance at 1.0446 (discussed last week) remained intact.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]


Technical lines, from top to bottom:

With USD/CAD rising sharply, we start at higher ground:

We start with resistance at 1.0945, which is protecting the key 1.10 level. This line has not been tested since September 2009.

Next is resistance at 1.0853. This line has held firm since May 2010.

1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.

1.0660 is an important resistance line, which was last tested in September 2010.

1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011. This line saw some action in early September and has weakened with the pair pushing higher. Will it be tested this week by the greenback?

1.0446, a key resistance line, was breached  last week and is  just holding on,  as USD/CAD ended the week at 1.0445.

1.0340 has had a busy October, and has reverted back to a support role. 1.0250 has some breathing room, with the pair trading at higher levels.

1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and saw a lot of activity in the first half of June. It remains a strong  support line.

The round number of 1.01 was a trough back in July 2012 and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013, most recently in mid-May.

1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and on other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of parity is a clear line and has not been tested since mid-February.

0.9910 was last tested in January, which marked the start of a strong US dollar rally which saw USD/CAD climb to the mid-1.03 range.

The final support line for now is the round number of 0.9800. This line has held firm since October 2012.

I am  bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar is on the ropes, and could be headed into 1.05 territory. Weak US numbers last week hurt the currency, and the markets are expecting a weak Candian GDP this week. If the key indicator does not beat the forecast, we could see the loonie’s downward trend continue.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.