Home AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 16-20

The Australian dollar took a tumble last week, as AUD/USD  lost about 150 points and dropped below the 0.90 level.  The pair  closed the week at 0.8963. This week’s major events is the minutes from the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Australian  dollar is under heavy pressure, and  even unexpectedly strong  Australian data failed to stem  the Aussie’s losses.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:     AUD_USD Dec 16-20_technical

  1. Chinese  Flash Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45.   The PMI continues to post readings slightly above the 50 line, which is the separator between contraction and expansion. The index is expected to rise slightly in November, with the estimate standing at 51.0 points.
  2. CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00.  This index is based on 7 economic indicators. The index posted a gain of 0.3% last month, after a decline in the previous reading. The index has not looked strong in recent readings, and has not posted a gain  above 0.3% in over a year.
  3. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Tuesday, 00:15. Debelle  will address a finance and banking conference in Sydney. Analysts will be listening closely, looking for clues as to future monetary policy.
  4. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The minutes provide details about the RBA’s last policy meeting. This event is often a market-mover, and the minutes could point to continuing dissatisfaction at the RBA with the high value of the  Australian dollar.
  5. New Motor Vehicles Sales: Tuesday, 00:30. The purchase of big-ticket items such as a new vehicle is an important gauge of consumer confidence and spending. The indicator declined by 0.7% last month, its third decline in four releases. The markets will be hoping for a gain in the upcoming reading.
  6. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Tuesday, 22:30. Stevens will testify before a parliamentary committee in Canberra. His remarks could lead to some volatility from AUD/USD, and testimony which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  7. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30.  This index is comprised of 9 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The index posted a weak gain of 0.1% in the October reading.
  8. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 00:30. The RBA Bulletin is published each quarter, and includes the Bank’s view on current and future economic conditions. The release usually has only a mild impact on the Australian dollar, as most of the data has already been released.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9104 and  hit the week’s  high of 0.9167, as resistance at 0.9180 (discussed last week) held firm.  The pair then dropped sharply, as the pair crashed below the 0.90 level and dropped to a low of 0.8909. The pair closed the week at 0.8963.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  start with resistance at 0.9556. Next, 0.9428 was busy in the first half of October and is currently providing strong resistance.

0.9283 saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It has provided steady  resistance since November.

0.9180 held firm as the pair moved higher early in the week. It  has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels.

Next is the round number of 0.9000, which  was breached  as the  Australian dollar  plunged.  AUD/USD  closed the week below this key level  for the first time since late August.

0.8893 has been a strong support line since August 2010, when the Australian dollar put together a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.10 line. It faced some pressure during the week but held firm.

0.8728 was last breached in July 2010, when the Australian dollar began an extended rally that saw it climb close to the 1.10 line.

0.8578   is the final support line for now.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The RBA  minutes could weigh on the Aussie, as  the RBA  has been reiterating that it wants  to see the currency trade at lower levels. As well, speculation that the Fed could taper QE this week could give a boost to the US dollar at the expense of risky assets such as the Aussie.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.