January ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is +175K. Automatic Data Processing was expected to report a gain of 191K private sector jobs in January after a rise of 227K (revised down from 238K) in December. December’s official NFP was very low, only 74K, far from ADP’s number. So a revision to December’s number is a bit of a positive surprise. We can now expect a positive revision in the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
Before the publication, EUR/USD was on the rise, breaking from the tight range to 1.3540. GBP/USD continued struggling around 1.6270 and USD/JPY traded around 101. Update: the small rise in the dollar is erased and and the greenback is now on the back foot.
The ADP report is the second important hint towards Friday’s NFP. The first one was an ominous one: ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed with a big drop in the headline number and as well as a big one in the employment component. Weather got part of the blame, but markets didn’t really buy that excuse.
Another big hint comes from a bigger sector: services, and it’s coming soon: see how to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with USD/JPY.