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EUR/USD July 1 – Little Change as Euro Data Mixed

EUR/USD  is showing little movement on Tuesday, after breaking above resistance at 1.3650  a day earlier. In the  European session, the pair is trading slightly below the 1.37 line.  On the release front, Eurozone PMIs were mixed, as  Spanish  Manufacturing PMI improved in  June,  but the Italian indicator weakened and missed the  estimate. The Eurozone Unemployment Rate dipped lower, but German Unemployment Change disappointed, rising for the second straight month. In the US, today’s highlight is ISM Manufacturing PMI, with the markets expecting another strong reading for June.

 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.

Update: CPI stands at 0.5%, core CPI rises to 0.8%

  • EUR/USD traded in range before rising towards 1.3650.
  • Current range:  1.3677 to 1.37.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD. Daily Forecast July 1

  • Below: 1.3677, 1.3650, 1.3585, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.3450, and 1.34.
  • Above: 1.37, 1.3740, 1.3785,  1.3830, 1.3865 and 1.3905.
  • 1.3677 has switched to a support role. 1.3650 follows.
  • 1.37 is under strong pressure. 1.3740 is next.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:15  Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.2 points. Actual 54.6 points.
  • 7:45  Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.5 points. Actual 52.6 points.
  • 7:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -9K. Actual +9K.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.9 points. Actual 51.8 points.
  • 8:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 12.6%. Actual 12.6%.
  • 9:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 11.7%. Actual 11.6%.
  • 12:00 Treasury Secretary Jack Lewis Speaks.
  • 13:45 US  Final Manufacturing  PMI. Estimate 57.5 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.6 points.  See how to trade this event with USD/JPY
  • 14:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 48.9 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate  60.0 points.
  • All Days – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 16.5M.


*All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • US housing data impresses: The week started out in impressive style, as Pending Home Sales jumped 6.1%, crushing the estimate of 1.4%. This was the strongest gain since May 2013.  US Housing numbers  were excellent in May, as New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales both beat their estimates.
  • German numbers point south: Weak German data continues to be a concern. The week started with Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, posting its third straight decline. The indicator came in at -0.6% last month, well off the forecast of +0.8%. Unemployment Change, which had posted strong declines in Q1, has reversed direction and recorded two straight gains, pointing to trouble in the employment sector. In June, the indicator came in at +9K, compared to an estimate of -9K.
  • Rise in inflation?: After German inflation numbers came out stronger than expected on Friday, we can certainly expect a tick up in euro-zone numbers. Both hit the lowest levels of 0.5% for the headline number and 0.7% for Core CPI in May. A move higher will enable the ECB  a catch of fresh air,  after months of pressure. A drop will put the pressure to do more.
  • Doubleheader on Thursday: In a rare event (due to the 4th of July), the ECB’s press conference and the Non-Farm Payrolls are  released at the same time, Thursday 12:30 GMT. The markets are expecting softer numbers for June, so traders should be prepared for some movement from EUR/USD. Join a free webinar on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT about this climax of events.
  • Dollar weathers GDP storm:  US Final GDP in Q1 was much worse than expected.  The markets were braced for a decline of 1.8%, but the indicator shocked with a  much sharper drop of  2.9%. This is really huge contraction that puts the growth forecast of 2% in doubt. On the other hand, more recent figures already look much better: this includes  strong sales of homes, consumer confidence and also core durable goods orders. The dollar managed to weather the weak GDP, so strong numbers this week could give a nice boost to the currency.


More:  Where is the fall of EUR/USD?

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.