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GBP/USD: Trading the US JOLTS Job Openings

Kenny Fisher
Updated:

JOLTS Job Openings measures the change in the number of employment openings last month, excluding the farm industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Update:  JOLTS: 4.671 million in June  

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, publication of employment data such as JOLTS Job Openings is highly anticipated by the markets, and the indicator can have a strong impact on the direction of GBP/USD.

JOLTS Job Openings  continues to move upwards, indicative of an improving US labor market. The indicator rose to 4.64 million last month, beating the estimate of 4.53 million. The markets are expecting the upturn to continue in July, with the estimate standing at 4.74 million.

Sentiment and Levels

The heady days when cable was above 1.70 seem long gone, as the  currency continues to struggle.  Market sentiment remains supportive of the US dollar as the US  recovery continues to gather steam.  The dollar has enjoyed broad strength and this could continue if key data remains strong. So, the sentiment  is bullish  on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.7108, 1.6989, 1.6823, 1.6669, 1.66 and  1.6646.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations:  4.72M to 4.80M: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations:  4.81M to 4.86M: A reading above expectations would signal economic expansion, and could push the pair  below one support level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 4.86M: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel GBP/USD downwards, and a second  support level could be broken.
  4. Below expectations:  4.66M to 4.71M: A weak reading could push the pair upwards, with one resistance line at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 4.66M: Such a scenario would be bearish for the dollar, and GBP/USD could break a second resistance line.

For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.

 

 

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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