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Forex Analysis: GBP/USD Carries Continued Downside Risk


August 25, 2014 – GBP/USD (daily chart) began the new trading week with a slight relief rally after last week’s sustained plummet, but continues to carry significant downside risk.

From its multi-year high of 1.7190 in mid-July, the currency pair has spent more than a month in a virtual freefall that has swiftly broken down below several major support levels. This includes a simultaneous breakdown below the key 1.7000 level and the 50-day moving average in late July, and then a further breakdown below the key 1.6700 level and the 200-day moving average in mid-August.

Having just hit almost a five-month low of 1.6534, GBP/USD is now trading just above its major 1.6500 support level. The current sustained plunge has created a decline of around 3.8% in just over a month thus far, which highlights the currency pair’s marked weakness and severely interrupts the strong bullish trend that had firmly been in place for an entire year between July of 2013 and July of 2014.

Despite the minor relief rally to start the new week, the overall directional bias continues to be bearish for the time being. Any breakdown and sustained trading below the noted 1.6500 support level would have a clear potential downside target around the key 1.6300 level, which is not only a major support/resistance area, but is also around the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the noted one-year bullish trend.

To the upside, any further rebound should meet strong resistance around the 1.6700 former support level.

James Chen, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
City Index Group


Forex trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This information is being provided only for general market commentary and does not constitute investment trading advice. These materials are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial instrument and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

James Chen

James Chen

James Chen is Chief Technical Strategist for City Index Group. He is also a Chartered Market Technician. He is the author of the books: "Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading" (John Wiley & Sons, 2009) and "Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets" (John Wiley & Sons, 2010). Mr. Chen writes currency analysis, leads forex trading seminars and has appeared in numerous major financial media outlets, including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Forbes, Reuters, Dow Jones, and the Associated Press.