Home AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

AUD/USD  suffered its worst week in over a year, losing more than 300 points. The pair closed the week slightly above the 0.90 level. The upcoming week is quiet, highlighted by the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian business and consumer confidence indicators softened, and an incredibly high Employment Change reading in August provided fleeting relief only for the slumping Aussie. US employment data was soft, but consumer confidence and retail sales  beat the estimates.  Update:  Chinese industrial output growth weakest since 2008 – AUD could suffer and lose 0.90

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Forecast Sep15-19

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. This indicator is an important gauge of demand in the employment sector. Last month, the indicator disappointed with a gain of just 0.3%. The markets will be hoping for better news in the August release.
  2. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent: Tuesday, 00:00. Kent will deliver remarks at a conference in Sydney. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  3. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. This is the key event of the week. The minutes provide details of the most recent policy meeting. The markets will be looking for hints as to future rate policy as well as references to the high value of the Australian dollar.
  4. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. This event has a minor impact on AUD/USD since most of the data has already been released. It is published on a quarterly basis.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  started the week  at 0.9364 which was  also the high of the week. The pair plunged to a low of 0.9026, as support held at the round number of 0.9000 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.9026.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical  lines from top to bottom:

We start at 0.9526, which  provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

Within the higher ranger, 0.9425 served as resistance in April occasionally capped the pair afterwards.

0.9330 was a cushion for the pair during July but has reverted to a resistance role after the Aussie’s sharp drop last week.

0.9270 supported the pair in August but has also switched to resistance.

0.9175  was unable to blunt the pair’s fall and starts off the week as resistance.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It is an immediate support level and could see action early in the week.

0.8891 has  provided strong support since February.

0.8763 marked the  low point of a  US dollar  rally in January, which began above the 0.90 level.

The  final support level for now is 0.8550, which has remained intact since December 2007.

I  am  bearish  on AUD/USD.

The US dollar has been practically unstoppable, and could continue to push higher against the shaky Australian dollar. The US economy continues to move in the right direction, and with QE close to its end, speculation about the timing of an interest rate could give  a boost to the US dollar.

More Aussie:  AUD/USD – Make It Or Break It For The Aussie?

Listen to our latest podcast about: gold and inflation, the Scottish referendum and the pound, and the FOMC meeting.

And subscribe on iTunes.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.