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US Data: durables mixed, claims disappoint, Core PCE ticks

The big bulk of US data produces mixed results. Beginning from durable goods orders, we have a beat on the headline but a miss on the core.  Jobless claims badly disappoint with a rise of 21K to 313K. The Core PCE Price Index watched by the Fed ticks up to 1.6% y/y.

The dollar is looking for a direction and it seems to be down.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the US economic calendar is very busy. When so much data is released at once, the information can go in both directions, creating a mixed  reaction. A  series of beats or a series of misses in the data could create a big swing in favor or against the dollar.

Before the bulk publications, EUR/USD traded at 1.2477, GBP/USD at 1.5768, USD/JPY at 117.75, USD/CAD at 1.1255, AUD/USD clinging onto 0.85 and NZD/USD around 0.7836.  The dollar is lower after the publications. So here goes:

The data (updated):

  • Durable goods orders: exp. -0.4%. Actual +0.4%
  • Core durable goods orders: exp. +0.5%. Actual =0.9%.
  • Core PCE Price Index: exp. +0.1% m/m, last y/y was +1.5%. Actual +0.2% m/m, 1.6%.
  • Jobless claims: exp. 287K. Actual 313K
  • Continuing claims: exp. 2.35 million. Actual 2.316 million.
  • Personal spending: exp. +0.4% m/m. Actual 0.2%.
  • Personal income: exp. +0.4% m/m, actual +0.2%.
  • PCE (non core) is 1.4% y/y.

Currency reactions:

  • EUR/USD was pressured by EZ QE talk but now managed to rise above 1.25.
  • GBP/USD was already moving higher and is now getting closer to 1.58
  • USD/JPY extends its profit taking, trading at 117.62.
  • USD/CAD slides towards 1.1250. See  CAD: Hitching A Ride
  • AUD/USD already dipped under 0.85 earlier, and is now leaving this level behind, trading at 0.8520.
  • NZD/USD is up to 0.7860.

Yesterday’s GDP was a beat but consumer confidence disappointed. The word mixed is the keyword here.

And this isn’t all for the day. We have an  important  housing figure: see how to trade the US new home  sales with USD/JPY.


Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.