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AUD/USD to 0.68 says one Australian stockbroker – will

Charlie Aitken has strong opinions: the Bell Potter stockbroker talked to the AFR and explained  how Australia basically joined the currency wars. This is set to result in AUD/USD at 0.68 as well as interest rates below 2%.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens speaks early on Friday. Will he contribute to a lower Aussie?

Atiken explains that levels of both the Baltic Dry Index (a reflection of trade for some) and the interest rate in Australia are below the worst levels  following the 2008 crisis. This should result in aggressive  easing  policy that  would contribute to a devaluation of the A$.

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7760, above the lows seen earlier in February but certainly on lower ground.

Two important events await the Australian dollar: the release of Australian job data on Thursday at 00:30 GMT  and Stevens’ testimony on Friday in Canberra (Thursday 22:30 GMT).

See how to trade the Australian employment data with AUD/USD.

In order to see a deterioration towards 0.68, or at least the previous RBA target of 0.75, we would need a combination of both  underwhelming employment data and also a dovish speech by Stevens.

But are things really that bad for Australia? The most recent figure released from the land down under is not too bad: a gain of 2.7% in home loans,  more than expected and on top of an upwards revision.

Needless to say, the employment figures are more important.

In our latest podcast, we do an Aussie Analysis, Greek Grindings and Oil Optimism.

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Here is how it looks on the chart:

Australian dollar pressured in February 2015 ahead of jobs and Stevens fundamental analysis

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.