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US retail sales: +1.2%, core +1%, good revisions – USD

Retail sales look good: they advanced 1.2% in May, better than expected and accompanied with an upwards revision: 0.2% in April against 0% initially reported. core sales are up 1%, better than 0.7% predicted. Retail sales ex gas and autos are up 0.7%, in comparison with 0.2% last month.

USD is higher, with EUR/USD dipping below1.12.  However, these gains do not last too long and the dollar reverses and falls.

In addition to the standard revisions for April, also the numbers for March were revised higher: the headline figure is now +0.9% instead of 0.5% previously reported. This could smooth the Q1 contraction.

Jobless claims came out at 279K, marginally above 277K predicted and 277K last week (revised +1K higher). The 4 week moving average is now 278.75K. The numbers are very stable of late. Continuing claims are at 2.265 million. Import prices are up 1.3% against 0.8% predicted.

The volume of retail sales in the US was expected to rise by 1.1% in May after remaining unchanged in April (before revisions). Core sales were  predicted to advance 0.7% after 0.1% beforehand. Weekly  jobless claims carried expectations for 277K, similar to 276K last week.

The dollar showed signs of recovering towards the event.

The US economy is driven by consumption. The numbers have disappointed in Q1 and eventually the economy contracted. Higher expectations accompanied this release, as we are already deep in the spring.


  • EUR/USD traded around 1.1220, despite optimism about a Greek deal. After the event, the pair dipped below 1.12 but is recovering.
  • GBP/USD slipped to 1.5460 from higher levels. It fell to 1.54420 before  stabilizing.
  • USD/JPY began recovering from the Kuroda related plunge and was around 123.70. The pair advanced to 123.18 but fell back.
  • USD/CAD was clinging to 1.23. The advance of the loonie may have stopped. A rise to 1.2350 was seen and reversed.
  • AUD/USD was at 0.7730, off the highs after a good Australian jobs report. The pair temporarily dipped below 0.77.
  • NZD/USD was flirting with 0.70,  suffering badly from the rate cut in New Zealand. It is now at new lows under 0.70, with the bottom at 0.6965.

We have  another consumer related  and market moving event tomorrow: the consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan. See how to trade the consumer sentiment with EUR/USD.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.