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Majors, US Dollar Forecast

Forex Weekly Outlook June 22-26

The dollar was on the back foot against many currencies in the wake of the dovish Fed decision. Will the greenback continue sliding? US Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and final GDP  are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way.

The Fed was being the Fed: no rate hike, lower rate projections and still waiting to be confident that the economy is strong. And more specifically, Yellen was probably Yellen, staying within the dovish camp and seeing only rate hike this year.  The dollar was hit hard across the board, with GBP/USD reaching out to new highs and EUR/USD breaking the double top. In the euro-zone, the Greek crisis intensified and this weighed on the common currency. What lies ahead?  Let’s start:

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  1. Summit on Greece: Monday. The finance ministers will meet  at 13:00 and the leaders later on, in last ditch efforts to stabilize the Greek crisis as money is fleeing the nation’s banks. June 30th is the deadline in which Greece has to pay the IMF and when the current program expires. Fed officials also acknowledged that a Greek “rupture” could eventually hit the US economy.
  2. US Existing Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. The number of previously owned home sales declined to 5.04 million annualized rate in April, following strong reading of 5.21 million in March. Analysts expected home sales to reach 5.23 million. Prices jumped since the start of 2014 and the housing inventory contracted at same time last year. However, economists estimate the housing market will continue its progress in the coming months due to higher wages and low mortgage rates. Existing home sales are expected to reach 5.29 million this time.
  3. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:45. This  independent measure of the world’s No. 2 economy has a significant impact on the Aussie and also  gives us an indicator of the global economy. After showing a contraction with 49.2 points in May, the preliminary number for June is predicted to advance to 49.4 points. A score above 50 represents growth, and under means contraction.
  4. Jerome Powell speaks: Tuesday, 12:00. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powel will speak in Washington DC and talk about the recent monetary policy meeting and its decisions. Market volatility is expected.
  5. US  Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. The capital goods rebounded in April despite the sharp decline in aircraft-related orders. Excluding transportation core orders edged up 0.5% following a 0.6 gain in the previous month, indicating growth in business investment.  A sharp decline of 3.6% in civilian aircraft orders caused the negative reading of -0.5%. Analysts expected a slightly better reading of -0.4%. However, other sectors showed a positive increase. Durable goods orders are expected to reach -0.5% while core orders are forecasted to rise 0.6%.
  6. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. German Ifo business confidence fell for the first time in seven months in May, to 108.5 compared following 108.6 in April. However, the reading was better than the 108.3 forecasted by analysts. The drop in sentiment was due to uncertainty over Greece’s place in the euro-area and the negative effect of a Greek default on the 19-nation currency bloc. German business sentiment is expected to reach 108.2.
  7. US Final GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. According to the second read of GDP, the economy contracted by 0.7% (annaulized) in Q1. The drop in output was blamed on the weather, a strike in ports and other reasons. The current assessment  is that the economy rebounded in Q2. In the third and final read for Q1, the  contraction is set to be smaller: only 0.2%. A positive number would certainly cheer the Fed.
  8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 claims last week to a seasonally adjusted 267,000. The reading was well below forecasts, pushing the four-week moving average down by 2,000 to 276,750. Continuing jobless claims fell by 50,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.22 million, indicating US labor market continues to improve. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 271,000 this week.

*All times are GMT.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer