Home EUR/USD: Trading the US GDP June 2015

EUR/USD: Trading the US GDP June 2015

US  Final GDP is a key release and is published each quarter.  GDP reports measure production and growth of the economy, and  are considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is  higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Final  GDP is the final of three GDP versions. Traders should pay close attention to the GDP release, as an unexpected reading could quickly affect the direction of EUR/USD.

US  Preliminary GDP  posted a decline of  0.7% in Q1, which was  within expectations.  The markets are  braced for another  decline  for the Q1  Final GDP, with an  estimate of  -0.2%.

Sentiments and levels

In Europe, the  economy continues to struggle  and the Greek crisis is taking its toll, but for now, the  driver for the dollar is diving due to the data dependent doves. The lack of confidence from  the Fed statements  could hurt the dollar for another week. Upon a  resolution of the  Greek crisis  we could see a short term rally. So, the overall sentiment is  neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1450, 1.1373, 1.1290, 1.1190, 1.1113 and 1.1050.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations:  -0.5% to +0.1%: In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: +0.1% to +0.5%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair  below one  support line.
  3. Well above  expectations: Above +0.5%: A strong reading  would likely boost the dollar, and the pair could break  below a second support line  as a result.
  4. Below expectations: -1.0% to -0.6%: In this scenario, EUR/USD could  push above one  resistance level.
  5. Well below  expectations: Below -1.0%. A  sharp contraction  could  result in  the pair breaking above a second resistance line.

For more on the euro, see the  EUR/USD forecast.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.