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Majors, US Dollar Forecast

Forex Weekly Outlook Jun 29-Jul 3

The US dollar gained some ground in a week that focused on the Greek crisis. Apart from the worsening crisis, the new quarter brings the NFP with a short buildup as well as GDP figures. It’s going to get busy. These are the major events on Forex calendar. Join us as we explore the market movers for this week.

The Greek crisis went from optimism to despair and all the way around. Things deteriorated after the market’s closed with a dramatic announcement on a referendum in Greece after the deadline. How will this high stakes game end?  US economic data were mostly positive. The housing sector is in a growth trend due to the constant improvement in the job market and employment conditions. The number of purchases of new U.S. homes surged in May, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000, the strongest pace since February 2008, rising 24% on a yearly base.  Will this trend continue?  Let’s start:

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  1. Greek crisis showdown: Tuesday, June 30th. The end of the month is a double deadline:  the end of the bailout agreement and the timing of the IMF payment that was bundled. At the current state of affairs, Greece has no money to pay. It is also unclear if the banks will be able to open on Monday and if  negotiations will indeed continue.  Things are moving all the time and not only around the deadline, but if Greece does not pay the IMF, it will mark another deterioration in the already extreme crisis.
  2. Glenn Stevens speaks: Tuesday, 8:40. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in London. Stevens may talk about the lukewarm economic growth and overvalued housing market. He usually uses every opportunity to weigh on the Australian dollar.
  3. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada’s economy contracted 0.2% in March, posting the third straight decline, led by 2.6% fall in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Analysts expected 0.2% expansion in Match. Gross domestic product plunged 0.6% annualized pace in the first quarter, due to the fall in energy prices. The GDP release was worse than forecasted, while the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expected the first quarter to be flat. However, policy makers expect a rebound in growth during the second quarter led by non-energy exports. Economists expect a 0.1% growth in April.
  4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00 Consumer confidence increased more than expected in May, reaching 95.4 from a revised April reading of 94.3. Economists forecasted a reading of 95 points. Stronger housing and employment data were the main cause for the rise in sentiment. Furthermore, better wages increases spending and boosts economic activity. Consumer confidence is expected to grow to 97.1 in June.
  5. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. Employment in the private sector expanded by 201,000 jobs in May compared to 165,000 in April. The reading was better than the 198,000 jobs gain forecasted by analysts. The labor market returned to the 200,000 mark indicating healthy employment growth. If the current pace of job gain continues, the economy is expected to reach full employment in a year’s time. US private sector  is expected to expand 216,000 in June.
  6. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded at a faster pace than expected in May, reaching 52.8 from 51.5 on April. Analysts forecasted a reading of 51.9. New Orders edged up to 55.8, rising 2.3 points from April. The Production Index posted 54.5, 1.5 points below the April reading. The Employment Index registered 51.7, 3.4 points above the April reading indicating broad-based growth. The Prices Index reached 49.5, 9.0 points above the April reading of 40.5. US Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 53.2 this time.
  7. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:30. The US economy expanded its labor force by 280,000 jobs in May, exceeding market forecasts for a 222,000 addition. This is another sign that the economy is on the growth path again after contracting in the first three months of this year. The unemployment rate inched up to 5.5% from 5.4%, but the overall picture is encouraging. If the positive trend will continue, the Fed will be able to return to a normal monetary policy in the near future. The NFP report is expected to post a jobs addition of 231,000, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decline back to 5.4%.
  8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment assistance rose by 3,000 last week to 271,000, remaining in a positive territory. The reading was in line with market forecasts. The  four-week moving average  declined 3,250 reaching 273,750.That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

In our latest podcast, we discuss building on the US recovery, the Greek crisis and EUR, Saudi solar and next week’s events.

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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer