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BOJ leaves policy unchanged – USD/JPY forms double top

The Bank of Japan did not pull the trigger on more monetary stimulus. They will leave the current rate of purchases at 80 trillion yen per year. These will continue to include various ETFs.

They did lower their forecasts though. USD/JPY is around 121 after wild swings to both sides.

The BOJ sees Core CPI at 0.1% in the fiscal year of 2015, rising to 1.4% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. These are lower forecasts. And regarding CPI, this depends on oil prices. When will the BOJ reach its target? Only the second half of FY2016.

They also lowered growth forecasts but still see  growth coming despite the slowdown in emerging markets.

Risks come from the  the next hike in the sales tax in 2017, but CPI should rise with wage growth.

In the press conference, BOJ Governor Kuroda still sees a virtuous cycle.

Despite this cycle of success, there is a fresh report saying that the Japanese government will add a supplementary budget of 3 trillion yen.

Last year we had the BOJ and the government announcing stimulus at the same time, and this knocked down the yen.

More:  USD/JPY: Trading The BoJ – RBS, Goldman Sachs

USD/JPY chart. Note that the pair went all the way to 121.50 before sliding. This is a double top now.During the hours of waiting, the pair dropped all the way to 120.30.

USDJPY October 30 2015 BOJ NO Change

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.