Home Trading ECB: Cheat Sheet & Bottom Line For EUR/USD –

Trading ECB: Cheat Sheet & Bottom Line For EUR/USD –

The ECB meeting is drawing near and here is a  quick  and short preview from SocGen:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

1. Deposit rate: current -0.30%

SG forecast: -20bp to -0.50%

Consensus: -10bp Forecast range: no change to -20bp

2. Asset purchase programme : current €60bn/month until March 2017 (sovereign, ABS, CB)

SG forecast: no change

Consensus: no change, 60% chance of programme expansion by €10bn to €70bn

3. 3y TLTROs

SG forecast: extension to 2017

Consensus: n/a

4. Tiered interest rate system on excess reserves

SG forecast: two-tier system ECB to copy the BoJ?  Required minimum reserves with the BoJ have an interest rate of 0%, excess reserves in existence in January will earn 0.1%, new excess reserves created by the future expansion of the BoJ balance sheet are subject to an interest rate of -0.1%.

Consensus: n/a

Previous five ECB meetings with policy changes market reaction

Bottom line:

Further easing is expected from the ECB this week, but it is unlikely to push the EUR/USD exchange rate lower durably. We do not expect EUR/USD to break below the 1.04/1.05 low reached in 2015 over the course of this year, short of a Brexit scenario.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.