USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Employment Change

Canadian Employment Change is an important leading indicator which provides a snapshot of the health of the employment market.  A reading higher than the forecast is bullish for the Canadian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CAD.

Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of the employment change indicator simultaneously with the unemployment rate is highly anticipated and can have  a significant effect on  the movement of USD/CAD.

The indicator has struggled lately, posting two consecutive declines, both of which were well short of expectations. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the March report, with an estimate of 10.4 thousand. Will the indicator match or beat this rosy prediction?

Sentiment and Levels

With  the Fed minutes indicating that an April rate hike is essentially off the table, sentiment on the US dollar could sour. Still, the US economy  is in strong shape and continues to outperform the Canadian economy.  So, the overall sentiment is  neutral on USD/CAD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.3457, 1.3353, 1.3174, 1.3064, 1.29 and 1.2780.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 7.0K to 14.0K: In this scenario, USD/CAD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range,  without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 14.1K to 18.0K: A reading above expectations would be an indication  of growth in the Canadian economy  and could  push the pair  below one  support level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 18.1K: A sharp rise in employment  numbers could propel the pair downwards, and two levels of support could be broken.
4. Below expectations: 3.0K to 6.9K: A lower than expected reading could push USD/CAD upwards, with one resistance level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 2.9K: Another poor reading  could undermine  confidence in the Canadian economy, and the  pair could break two  resistance levels.

For more on USD/CAD, see the  Canadian dollar forecast.