Home USD: Head Fake Or Imminent FX Headache? – SocGen
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USD: Head Fake Or Imminent FX Headache? – SocGen

After the sharp greenback comeback, the big question is: a change of trend or just a necessary correction?

Here is analysis from SocGen:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

The dollar’s slide was interrupted yesterday as angst about the global economy overtook relative real yield trends as the dominant driver. Oil was down, the dollar bounced and high-beta and commodity-sensitive currencies corrected.

Current FX trends are overwhelmingly the result of positions being taken off, rather than fresh ones being put on and that encourages slightly chaotic moves.

Stephanie Aymes and her Technical Analysis team warned yesterday that  “The Dollar Index is now at the ‘make or break level’ of 92.50/92.10,  the lower part of the broad 1- year consolidation zone which intersects the upward channel limits in force since 2008 and 2011 lows. More importantly, 92.50/92.10 corresponds to the neckline of the Double Top pattern the Index has been tracing after it failed to overcome the stiff resistance of 100.40. Should the Index break durably below 92.50/92.10 (weekly close) it would imply a potential down move towards the projected potential which is located near 85 levels.”

DXY make break or fake May 2016

I’ve never made a secret of my inability to draw straight lines but  we’ve either had a ‘fake break’ on an intra-week basis, that leaves the range, and the dollar’s uptrend intact, or we’re setting up for a bigger dollar fall if we end below these key levels at the end of the week.

This a time for head-scratching rather than jumping to conclusions. Friday’s US payroll data  may help unfog the US economic outlook a bit (though they may just continue to confirm that this low wage-growth, low productivity jobs ‘boom’ goes on).  But either way, the US data will determine the weekly close in DXY and therefore provide food for thought for the technicians.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.