The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Along with the unemployment rate, which is released at the same time, it provides a snapshot of the UK employment situation and could affect the direction of GDP/USD.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
UK Claimant Count Change is closely monitored, as the indicator is one of the most important economic indicators. A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
The indicator disappointed in October, as jobless rolls expanded by 9.8 thousand, well above the estimate of 1.9 thousand. The November estimate stands at 6.2 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
With the Fed poised to raise rates, sentiment towards the greenback is favorable. This could translate into gains for the US dollar. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2860, 1.2778, 1.2674, 1.2512 and 1.2448
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 3.0K to +9.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 0.0K to 2.9K: A drop in jobless claims would be a positive sign and could send the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Below 0.0K: A contraction in jobless claims could lead to the pair breaking above two resistance lines.
- Below expectations: 9.1K to 13.0K: A weak reading could push the GBP/USD downward, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Above 13.0K: A significant rise in jobless claims could result in GBP/USD dropping below two support levels.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.
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