Home AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change

AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change

Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change surged in October, as the economy added 39.1 thousand jobs, crushing the estimate of 17.6 thousand. However, this was well short of the forecast of 20.3 thousand. The markets are expecting a smaller gain of 10.2 thousand in the December report.

 Sentiment and Levels

The US dollar was broadly lower on Tuesday, after comments by Donald Trump that the dollar is “too strong”, and the Aussie has taken full advantage, posting strong gains. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7938, 0.7835, 0.7691, 0.7513, 0.7427 and 0.7311

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 7.0K to 13.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 13.1K to 17.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 17.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
  4. Below expectations: 3.0K to 6.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 3.0K: A  soft reading  would likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.