Home GBP/USD: Trading the UK Claimant Count Change

GBP/USD: Trading the UK Claimant Count Change

The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. It provides a snapshot of the UK employment situation and  could affect the direction of  GDP/USD.    

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD

Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

UK Claimant Count Change is closely monitored, as the indicator is one of the most important economic indicators. A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.

The indicator sparkled in December, as jobless rolls dropped by 10.3 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of a gain of 4.6 thousand. The January estimate stands at +1.1 thousand.

Sentiment and Levels

The markets will be attentive to Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday. If she reiterates that the Fed plans several rate hikes in 2017, the greenback could move higher. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2540, 1.2433, 1.2311, 1.2201 and 1.2080

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: -0.2K to +4.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: -3.0K to -0.3K: A strong reading would be a sign of economic growth and could send the pair above one  resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Below -3.0.0K: In this scenario, the pair could break above two resistance lines.
  4. Below expectations: +4.1K to +8.0K: A  weak reading  could push the GBP/USD downward, with one  support  level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Above +8.0K: A significant rise in jobless claims could result in GBP/USD dropping below two support levels.

For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.