Home AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change

AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change

Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change slipped to 13.5 thousand in December, but this was enough to beat the forecast of 10.2 thousand. The downturn is expected to continue in January, with an estimate of 9.7 thousand.

 Sentiment and Levels

The US economy remains in good shape and Janet Yellen hinted that a rate hike could be coming sooner rather than later. As well, Trump’s protectionist stance could sour investors on risk and hurt the Australian dollar. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7938, 0.7835, 0.7691, 0.7513, 0.7427 and 0.7311

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 7.0K to 13.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 13.1K to 17.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 17.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
  4. Below expectations: 3.0.K to 6.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 3.0K: A  soft reading  will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.