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US core durable goods orders miss expectations – USD

This is another case of the headline figure beating expectations with the core data coming short of expectations. Durable goods orders are up 1.7% against 1.2% forecast. In addition, the previous figure was revised to the upside: 2.3% against 2%  originally reported for January.

Core orders are up 0.4%,  below 0.5% predicted. At least  there is a positive revision also here: 0.2% instead of 0% that was published a month ago.

The non-defense non-air are down 0.1% instead of rising 0.6%. Also here the revision is positive, from -0.1% to 0.1%. However, this is the core of the core and the miss here is more significant than elsewhere. This is where the bigger pain comes from.

The US dollar seems to be focused on the Trump-care vote. Nevertheless, the data feeds into the GDP calculations for Q1 2017. In addition, the Fed is looking at this quite closely, as core orders are a significant part of investment measures.

The US dollar  initially advanced on Trump ´s ultimatum. It seemed like a “win-win” situation for the Administration on the path to tax cuts and infrastructure spending. However, it could be a lose-lose  situation in the longer run.

Here is how the situation looks on the USD/JPY chart. A “wait and see” mode best describes it.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.