Home EUR/USD: Trading the US Advance GDP

EUR/USD: Trading the US Advance GDP

US Advance GDP is a measurement of the production and growth of the economy. Analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity, and publication of Advance GDP could have a significant impact on the movement of EUR/USD. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Advanced GDP is released quarterly, and provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy in the past quarter. Traders should pay particular attention to this economic indicator and treat it as a market-mover.

Preliminary GDP for Q1 posted a gain of 1.9%, shy of the estimate of 2.1%. The estimate for Advance GDP for Q1 is considerably lower, at 1.3%.

Sentiments and levels

The markets have priced in a Macron victory in the French presidential election, and the ECB didn’t make any moves with interest rates. In the US, Trump’s tax plan was short on specifics. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.10, 1.0905, 1.0870, 1.0830 and 1.0775

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 0.8% to 1.8%. In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 1.9% to 2.3%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 2.3%: Such an outcome could push EUR/USD downwards, and a second support line might break as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 0.3% to 0.7%: A weak GDP reading could push the pair higher and break one level of resistance.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 0.3%. A much softer gain than forecast could see EUR/USD move higher and break above a second resistance line.

For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.