USD/JPY beginning to move higher – Forecast Oct. 23-27

Dollar/yen  did not go anywhere fast early in the week but then found its feet. Things could certainly wake up as more important events face markets in the US and Japan’s elections will echo early in the week.

Update: the landslide victory of PM Shinzo Abe sends the yen lower. Together with his coalition partner, Abe commands a majority of two-thirds in the lower house of parliament.

USD/JPY  fundamental  movers

Tax reform, no surprises from Fed speakers

US politicians got something done: a first step on the road to tax reform. This helped the dollar move higher, and it was expressed in this pair.

US data was OK, with the Empire State Manufacturing Index beating expectations while industrial output came out as expected. Jobless claims also went back to normal.

In Japan, political tension was rising towards the elections over the weekend and things are beginning to move. Higher expectations for a wide majority for Abe weighed on the yen.

Japanese elections, Advance GDP, and more

The weekend features Japan’s snap elections. Incumbent Shinzo Abe is expected to win an absolute majority in the lower house, but at which rate? A wide majority could strengthen his hand for more fiscal stimulus, thus weakening the yen. A narrower victory due to a big gain for Tokyo’s Governor could send the yen higher.

In the US, the main event is the GDP release on Friday: it will be the first read for Q3 and it could go anywhere. Before that, we will get the important durable goods orders and some housing data.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

113.50 was a temporary line of resistance on the way up in July. 113.70 was a separator of ranges in June.

112.20 used to be important in the past. It is closely followed by 111.80, which capped the pair in May. The swing high of early September at 111.30 serves as another point of interest.

Looking down, 110.70 was a separator of ranges in June and remains important.  109.60 was a gap  line in late April, a gap that was never closed.

In June, the pair found support several times at 109.10 and this also works as support.  Further below, the cycle low of 108.10 is of high importance.

The trough of 107.35 seen in early September serves as another cushion on the way down.

USD/JPY  Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I remain bearish on USD/JPY

Even if Abe’s is returned to power by a wide majority, the hiccups in the US economy could weigh on the greenback.