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NFP misses with 148K, wages +0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y, USD falls – live blog

A miss on the headline: 148K jobs gained but wages do not surprise with 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y. The other figures are more or less as expected: unemployment at 4.1%, participation at 62.7%.  

The dollar is weaker across the board, especially against the Canadian dollar which enjoys its excellent jobs report. However, after the dust settled, the greenback managed to get its act together and recover.

December 2017 NFP Data (updated)

  • Non-Farm Payrolls: 148K  (exp. +190K, last 228K before revisions)
  • Average Hourly Earnings  0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y  (exp. +0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y)
  • Revisions: -9K  (insignificant last time).
  • Participation Rate:  62.7%        (62.8% last month )
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1%    (exp.4.1%,  last month 4.1%)
  • Private Sector: 146K  (ADP showed 250K).
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 8.1%    (previous: 8.0%).
  • Employment to population ratio:60.1%    (previous: 60.1%)
  • Average  workweek: 34.5  (last month: 34.5).

We still have the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the factory orders at 15:00 GMT.

NFP Currency Reaction

  • EUR/USD traded around 1.2050 and reached a high of 1.2082 before gradually retreating.
  • GBP/USD traded above 1.35. UK  PMIs  were mediocre. Resistance is at 1.3615 and support at 1.3460. Cable is slightly higher, at 1.3570, nothing earth-shattering.
  • USD/JPY was around 113.20, not going anywhere fast. It slipped back towards 113 before stabilizing.
  • USD/CAD was battling 1.25. Canada released its own jobs report at the same time and it was absolutely amazing. USD/CAD tumbled down below 1.24.
  • AUD/USD held onto high ground around 0.7840. It went as high as 0.7869, which is still below yesterday’s high.

More:  EUR/USD: up to 1.25 or first to 1.10? Two opinions

Here is a live blog of the event together with Valeria Bednarik of FXStreet:


The US was expected to report a gain of 190K jobs in December. Wages were predicted to rise by 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The unemployment rate was projected to remain unchanged at the low level of 4.1%.

The US dollar was generally on the back foot in late 2017 and early 2018.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.