- European Central Bank’s Minutes showed that policymakers are “confident that inflation would rise towards the target in medium-term” but “caution is needed.”
- The US Dollar is pulling back slightly after a six-week run but the trend remains solid for now.
EUR/USD has been supported throughout Asia and Europe as the US Dollar is taking a well-deserved break. The single unit is currently trading at around 1.1730 up 0.30 % on Thursday.
On the macroeconomic front, earlier the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts said that the “economic outlook is more uncertain” and “caution is needed” as protectionist measures (trade war) can trigger foreign exchange volatility and can overall weigh on the economy. However, the Governing Council remains “confident that inflation would rise towards target in medium-term” and as always, “growth risks are broadly balanced and growth is still solid, broad-based.”
“We actually continue to favor a somewhat slower ECB, especially considering the latest economic data. Specifically, we continue to look for an only very gradual exit from negative rates,” wrote Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy, and Bas van Geffen, CFA, Quantitative Analyst at Rabobank. “We believe that the ongoing uncertainty will keep the Governing Council very cautious on rates. Inflation certainly isn’t calling for urgent hikes, and we expect this to pick up only gradually. We, therefore, continue to favor the first deposit rate hike in September 2019, a little later than the market is pricing it.” they added in a research note.
Meanwhile, the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) matched analysts estimates at 0.3% for the first quarter of 2018 annualized and the German GfK Consumer Confidence came slightly below expectations giving EUR some mild support.
On the other hand, the greenback as measured per the US Dollar Index (DXY) has been climbing for the last six weeks with very few and shallow pullbacks suggesting a very strong trend as traders anticipate at least two more rate hikes in 2018 from the Federal Reserve Bank. On Wednesday, the FOMC’s minutes proved to be constructive for a June rate hike but at the same time, the report did not contain any real surprise to warrant USD bulls to press their bets just now.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
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The single currency is in a strong downtrend as it trading below its three main moving averages. The market is correcting the last move down to 1.1675 which is the new 2018 low. Resistances are seen at the 1.1750 previous support/resistance level and at the 1.1830 swing high. Bears can expect some support at the 1.1700 handle and at the 1.1675 low of 2018. The next key support lower is priced in at 1.1553 swing low.
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