In its May 1 policy statement the RBA stated that “one continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption, although consumption growth picked up in late 2017.
Key Quotes:
“Household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high”. Set against this backdrop the fact that today’s retail sales release has beaten market estimates is clearly a welcome development. That says, there is already a suspicion in the market that the strong data may be temporary since it may have reflected unseasonal hot weather which boosted activity in cafes and restaurants.”
“There is little change in the fact that Australian consumers remain pressured by high debt levels, weak wage inflation and more recently by falling house prices.”
“For many commentators, falling house prices should further entrench the RBA’s cautious policy outlook. However, last week RBA Board member Harper was reported as suggesting that the direction of house prices wouldn’t matter, if other circumstances aligned for a rate rise. We see little risk of that happening.”
“In Q1 Australia’s wage price index registered a gain of 2.1% y/y, in line with the previous quarter. This is above the growth of 1.9% y/y recorded earlier in 2017, but this was the lowest rate on record and compares with wage inflation in the 4.0% y/y to 4.3% y/y region between late 2004 and early 2009.”
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