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US: Consumer credit and jobless claims in focus – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura suggest that as the US labor market remains healthy, they continue to expect low readings in jobless claims.

Key Quotes

“The recent volatility will likely subside as much of it was likely driven by imperfect seasonal adjustment around holidays.”

Consumer credit: Consumer credit expansion has slowed somewhat recently to a 3.6% saar in March, the slowest gain since September 2017. The recent weakness was likely driven by slower expansion of revolving credit (mostly credit card loans). The softening appears consistent with relatively soft personal spending in Q1. Further, slower credit card loan expansion may have been a reflection of tighter lending standards. The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicated that lending conditions on consumer credit card loans tightened modestly and demand for credit card loan softened in Q2. However, considering the strong pace of job gains and low unemployment, we do not think the recent slowdown signals a material deterioration in the consumer sector.”

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