The second preliminary estimates for 2018 Q1 real GDP, released today has put annualized Japanese q-q growth at -0.6%, unchanged from the first preliminary estimate but below the market consensus forecast (Bloomberg survey median) of -0.4% and our forecast of +0.1%, explains Takashi Miwa, Research Analyst at Nomura.
Key Quotes
“The first preliminary estimates showed the first negative growth in nine quarters, and, contrary to our expectations, this remained unchanged in the second preliminary estimates.”
“Revisions by demand category
Looking at the details, we note that there were downward revisions for real consumer spending (from -0.0% q-q in the first preliminary estimates to -0.1% in the second set) and for changes in real private-sector inventories (from -0.1% to -0.2%), with these the main factors pushing real GDP growth below the market consensus forecast.”
“Temporary economic weakness still the likely scenario for 2018 Q1
With real growth unchanged from the first preliminary estimate, it appears that temporary economic weakness is still the likely scenario for 2018 Q1.”
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