According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, one of the most significant stories of the last 24 hours has been the release from the UK Government of the Irish backstop proposal.
Key Quotes
“After what sounded like a heated debate between UK PM Theresa May and Brexit Secretary David Davis – with the latter at one stage supposedly threatening to resign – a fudge in the wording of the backstop proposal was incorporated to avert a crisis. The critical reference was “the UK expects the future arrangement to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest”. That appeased both Davis and May by committing to a date but not in the legal sense, hence the fudge.”
“Legally though this backstop could commit the U.K. to remain in the Customs Union and other areas of the Single Market indefinitely unless an alternative solution to the Northern Irish border has been found. The text will now be put before the EU government heads later this month where there’s already been some mixed feedback. It’s getting increasingly possible that we’ll get well into the next decade without knowing what type of Brexit we’re going to get by which time anything could happen to politics and/or public opinion or indeed the EU. Food for thought.”
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