According to analysts from Wells Fargo, petroleum exports
Key Quotes:
“U.S. exports came into the year with a fair amount of momentum, and recent data has shown that export growth has remained solid thus far in 2018.”
“The boom in U.S. oil production that is underway should continue to propel exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products higher.”
“The export growth rates of 5 percent that we forecast for the United States for this year and 6 percent for next year should be achievable, provided that something does not go wrong.”
“We forecast that the global economic expansion should continue for the foreseeable future, but there are numerous shocks that could potentially occur that could cause global economic growth to weaken, thereby leading to slower export growth. Perhaps the most immediate downside risk to our export forecast involves a potential trade war.”
“The “first order” effects of a trade war on the overall U.S. economy should be limited. That is, any hit to export growth from a trade war likely would not be big enough to cause a U.S. recession. However, we also highlighted some potential knock-on effects (i.e., slower growth in consumer spending due to stock market volatility, weaker business fixed investment spending) that could compound the “first order” effects.”
“Our base case calls for continued solid growth in American exports, led by robust growth in petroleum exports. We readily acknowledge, however, the downside risk to this sanguine outlook.”
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