US President Trump is going to press ahead with USD50bn of tariffs on Chinese goods, which will focus on high-tech exports, exactly the sensitive areas that China wants to specialise in as it moves towards its 2025 industrial-policy goals, notes the research team at Rabobank.
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“That is a whole magnitude of order more serious than the tariffs on existing US tariffs on aluminium and steel, especially since it has just one key country in its sights. China has already said that it will respond in kind. However, it seems unlikely that the US will back-off, even if elements of the Trump administration might still be hoping for a quick-fix deal to sell more agri products and gas to narrow the bilateral trade deficit.”
“Rather, there is a growing bi-partisan consensus in Washington that ‘something needs to be done about China’.”
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