Analysts at Nomura explained that whenever we hear from a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee it is important to judge their sentiments against their underlying position in order to evaluate how the policy debate is changing in their eyes.
Key Quotes:
“In order to do this, we have created a (highly subjective) hawk-dove scale of the MPC. It is understandable that the Bank itself does not like such characterisations – not least because there is a real risk of misrepresentation as those members who are apparent “hawks” or “doves” over any given short period of time may eventually prove themselves to be neither (they may instead be either “activist” or “passive” members).”
“Comments by new MPC appointee Professor Jonathan Haskel (Imperial College) put him at the more dovish end of the spectrum, replacing Mr McCafferty who is (on most metrics) one of the Committee’s two most hawkish members. This more dovish appointment will not happen until September, before which we continue to think that a majority will vote for a rate rise in August.”
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